Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Montgomery's 17-Point Crash Was the Biggest in the State. Two Years Later, It's Still Not Back.

Montgomery County's graduation rate crashed 17 points in 2023, the largest single-year district drop in Alabama. Two years later, it has recovered only partially.

Alabama Graduation Rates: 2023 CrashET · BirminghamET · Black BeltET · CCR GapET · Conecuh · Foster CareET · Gender Gap · Hispanic Gap · Homeless · English LearnersET · Montgomery · Nine RecordsET · Phenix City · Special Ed · Race Gap

In 2022, Montgomery CountyET graduated 84.5 percent of its seniors. One year later, the number was 67.4 percent.

A 17.1 percentage point single-year crash, the largest of any Alabama district in at least a decade of records. In a single graduating class, the state capital went from slightly below the state average to 21 points beneath it. One in three Montgomery seniors did not receive a diploma.

Two years into a recovery effort, the rate stands at 80.4 percent. Better, but still 4.1 points below the pre-crash level and 11.2 points below the state average of 91.6 percent. Montgomery is the fourth-largest district in Alabama by graduating class size. Its 1,696 seniors make its graduation rate a statewide concern, not a local one.

Montgomery vs. state average

What happened in 2023

The cohort count tells part of the story. Montgomery's graduating cohort jumped from 1,584 students in 2022 to 2,060 in 2023, a 30 percent increase in a single year. That kind of surge does not reflect population growth. It suggests a backlog: students who had been retained, delayed, or held back suddenly entering the four-year graduation window.

When a large number of students who were already off-track enter the denominator simultaneously, the rate collapses even if the absolute number of graduates stays flat or increases. Montgomery appears to have experienced exactly this, a cohort correction that exposed how many students were falling through cracks that the previous numbers had papered over.

Cohort size spike

The recovery is incomplete

Montgomery gained 12.0 percentage points in 2024 and another 1.0 point in 2025, climbing from 67.4 percent back to 80.4 percent. The cohort has normalized to 1,696 seniors in 2025, down from the 2,060 anomaly. But the recovery has stalled well short of the pre-crash level.

At 80.4 percent, Montgomery graduates a lower share of its students than 129 of Alabama's 143 districts. It sits just above Birmingham City (81.0 percent) and well below other urban districts like Huntsville (88.2 percent) and Mobile County (86.5 percent).

Year-over-year changes

The subgroup picture

Montgomery's graduation challenges cut across demographics. No subgroup in the district exceeds the statewide average. The district's overall rate of 80.4 percent masks significant variation, but the variation is between groups that are below the state average and groups that are far below it.

Montgomery subgroup rates

Not just Montgomery

Montgomery's 2023 crash was the most dramatic, but it was not unique. Several Alabama districts saw significant drops that year as COVID-era grading flexibilities expired statewide. The pattern suggests that the elevated 2020-2022 rates, which appeared to show pandemic resilience, may have been partially inflated by temporary policies rather than genuine improvement.

Montgomery just happened to have the largest correction.

Biggest district drops in 2023

By the numbers: 67.4%, Montgomery County's 2023 graduation rate, down 17.1 points from 84.5% the prior year. The district has recovered to 80.4% but remains 11.2 points below the state average.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

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